Football Outsiders’ Tom Gower answers questions about the 2018

Indianapolis Colts Every year Womens Jack Doyle Jersey , Football Outsiders puts together an almanac that analyzes each team before the college and NFL seasons begin. Included is a look at statistical analysis on a team and individual basis, along with projections for 2018. For those who are more interested in how Football Outsiders views the Colts overall, seven pages of team-specific content is also filled with commentary from Tom Gower. His bio at Football Outsiders:After Stampede Blue’s staff had a chance to read Gower’s thoughts on the Colts in this year’s almanac, we were afforded the opportunity to ask some follow-up questions. We hope you enjoy the interaction below.SB: Andrew Luck has been a full go throughout all of training camp, making throws all over the field. Given the changes on the offensive line and assuming Luck plays the whole season, what would you project for the Colts offense in 2018?TG: Our projection in Football Outsiders Almanac 2018 has the Colts 13th in offensive DVOA. That assumes Luck’s readiness for the start of the regular season with no particular limitations, with no more risk of getting injured than any other quarterback. It’s worth keeping in mind our projections are based on many simulations and are the average of a lot of different possibilities. That projection is pretty much in line with what the Colts did do on offense in 2016.SB: Other than Andrew Luck, who would you pick as the dark horse candidates to significantly alter your predictions on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball?TG: Rather than specific players, I think a lot of the offense and defense comes down to schemes and particularly the coordinators and how effectively they’re able to get players playing together and how effective they are at game-planning and adjustments.Looking more at specific players, I’d highlight Tarell Basham and Kemoko Turay on defense. Jabaal Sheard was one of the league leaders in hurries per our charting partners at Sports Info Solutions, and the emergence of a second pass rusher would really help.On offense, I don’t know if he really qualifies as a dark horse, but I think T.Y. Hilton is actually a key player. Given all the questions at wide receiver after him, it would be useful if he could be a target sink. But the Reich/Sirianni offense will be oriented more around stretching the defense horizontally rather than vertically, so Hilton will probably be asked to win in somewhat different ways than he has in the past.SB: What has been your observation about teams playing under a new coaching staff? Is there something instructive that Colts fans might be able to use as a reference to keep expectations in check?TG: New coaching staffs range from the exceptionally successful to exceptionally unsuccessful. Frank Reich has never really run his own offense, Nick Sirianni is in his first year as a coordinator, and Matt Eberflus has coordinated only in college means the Colts are a hard team to predict from that perspective.SB: Outside of quarterback, what position on the team do you feel will be most improved in 2018 and how much does that impact your record projections?TG: It’s hard not to pinpoint the offensive line after the big draft investments and all the issues the position group had last year, as long as Anthony Castonzo’s injury does not linger into the season (as I write this on August 7). That will definitely help, but the scheme change from Rob Chudzinski to Reich/Sirianni will probably be at least as important for protecting Luck and keeping him healthy than the change on the line. SB: Based upon changes over the last couple of years for the Colts in terms of adding younger players, having new management, and completely overturning the coaching staff, how would you project the team’s future? TG: It comes down to scheming and player development, and we should learn a lot this year about that. I thought heading into last offseason that this year we’d be looking at a defense where we could identify a couple building blocks, a couple average players, and a couple players replacing guys it was clear last year needed to be upgraded. Instead, we’re looking at another year of a lot of new players coming together.We’re actually not that pessimistic about the Colts defense for 2018. I know Womens Adam Vinatieri Jersey , that seems weird to say when they’re 29th in our projections in the book. As I noted, though, the projections are the sum of a range of possibilities, and the defense has been bad enough long enough and there aren’t enough significant investments in draft and free agency that our projections see a good chance of becoming a top ten unit. But they should be better. The 2017 Colts defense was really awful on third downs-one of the worst third down defenses of the DVOA era (going back to 1986). Those defenses have tended to improve more than most bad defenses. All the personnel changeover makes us a little uneasy about that, but I also covered the 2011 Texans, who changed over a lot of players and without the benefit of pre-training camp offseason work went from awful to really good.With an offense that’s a little above average and a defense that is bad but not awful, the Colts are wild card contenders this year in our view, in what should be an extremely competitive AFC South (we’re down on the Jaguars relative to people who pay more attention to playoff wins, and the gap from first to last place in the division is just 0.6 wins in our projections). The AFC as a whole is New England and Pittsburgh and a really big gap to anybody else. Tom Brady will fall off or retire eventually, right? And Ben Roethlisberger’s not going to play forever, and doesn’t seem to be aging as well as Brady, anyway. The conference beyond the immediate future looks wide open, and Luck taking another step in his development plus one or two defenders turning into a real playmaker could put Indianapolis at the top of that group. But they’re not the only team in the conference or even the division that can tell that kind of story.Our ThoughtsGower was fair in his assessment about the Colts moving forward. Interestingly, we agree that while the AFC South should be very competitive, it is more likely that the Colts will take a step forward and the Jaguars a step back. Only time will tell just how big those steps will be.It is interesting to note that some of the biggest weaknesses for the Colts 2017 defense tend to see meaningful rebounds in the following year. New coaching staffs make it hard to predict how volatile the Colts could be relative to those historical results but there is every reason to believe that a much more consistent offense, in both halves of football games, will take pressure off of the defense. This alone could help the team find more success.Another seemingly unanimous opinion is that Frank Reich and Nick Sirianni will have a profound impact on how the offense functions. The quicker releases and more horizontal aspects to the game could help keep Luck upright and help the offensive line better. What do you think about Gower’s comments? Derek Carr and the Oakland Raiders were flying high the last time they faced the Indianapolis Colts.Carr threw three touchdown passes to lead Oakland to its 12th win of the season on Christmas Eve in 2016, but got knocked out late in that game with a broken ankle. That has sent the Raiders into a downward spiral they still haven't escaped.The Raiders (1-5) are reeling as they head into Sunday's game against the Colts (2-5), having traded away No. 1 receiver Amari Cooper to Dallas earlier in the week after previously dealing away star pass rusher Khalil Mack before the season.The trio of Carr, Cooper and Mack were the foundation pieces in Oakland, but now only Carr remains and the team is once again rebuilding."For me, being in my fifth year, it's hard if I'm being honest," Carr said. "Just going out there, I feel like we've had to do this a couple of times in my early five years. That part is hard. At the same time, it doesn't change my mindset."The Raiders have gone just 7-17 since that victory over the Colts and changed coaches, with Jon Gruden coming in this season to replace the fired Jack Del Rio.Carr's level of play has also dropped Womens Ryan Grant Jersey , with him throwing 29 touchdowns and 21 interceptions in his 21 games since then, compared to 38 TD passes and 13 interceptions in the previous 21 games."I definitely feel like a better player," Carr said. "I'm smarter. I know more. Talent-wise, I think after last year just recovering from injury, I'm back to my strength and my speed how I want it to be. Absolutely I believe that I have nothing but the best out in front of me. I really do believe that."Colts coach Frank Reich, who was an assistant in the AFC West with the Chargers for Carr's first two seasons in the NFL, had plenty of praise for Carr even if his production has dropped of late."He has really good arm talent," Reich said. "He sees the field really well. He can make all the throws. He can drive the ball all over the field. He can throw the touch pass. I just think he shows good instincts. I think he has good feel in the pocket. This is a guy who I think can put a lot of points on the board leading an offense."Here are some other things to watch for Sunday's game:LINING UPColts general manager Chris Ballard made the offensive line a focal point during the offseason. It shows. For the first time this season, the Colts used the same starting five in consecutive games and they delivered by paving the way for Marlon Mack to rush for a career high 126 yards. It's only the fifth 100-yard game during Andrew Luck's seven NFL seasons. Also, Luck has been sacked only once in his last 125 pass attempts after getting sacked 166 times in his first 77 career games."We must stay vigilant in all areas and we've got a great challenge against an aggressive Oakland defense, a defense that's tough to figure out," Luck said.WHERE'S THE BEAST?Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch went on injured reserve this week with a groin injury, leaving a big void in Oakland's offense. Lynch leads the Raiders with 372 yards rushing. Now the bulk of the load will go to Doug Martin, whose 3.0 yards per carry the past three seasons is the lowest in the NFL among players with at least 150 attempts. Third-down back Jalen Richard could also take on a bigger role as a runner, and DeAndre Washington figures to get his first action of the season after being hampered by a knee injury in training camp."You can't bring another Marshawn Lynch into the game, but we have a solid group of backs who can get the job done," Richard said.MITCHELL'S RETURNColts safety Mike Mitchell was out of the league until two weeks ago. Now, he's about to make his first trip back to the Black Hole since he left Oakland in 2012. And while Mitchell said he enjoyed the fans while he was there, the AFC's reigning defensive player of the week isn't sure what to expect. But the Raiders' second-round draft pick in 2009 is just glad to have found a home."I could be winning an award this week, they could be calling for my head next week," Mitchell said. "I just take everything with a grain of salt."JUST FOR KICKSThe final game of Gruden's first stint as Raiders coach ended with a kick by Adam Vinatieri. On a snowy night in New England on Jan. 19, 2002, Vinatieri kicked a 23-yard field goal in overtime to lead the Patriots to a 16-13 victory.The game was most notable for the "Tuck Rule," which turned a potential game-sealing strip sack in regulation for Oakland into an incomplete pass, setting the stage for Vinatieri to tie the game with an improbable 45-yard field goal in the snow. Vinatieri is still kicking and needs five points to break Morten Andersen's NFL career scoring record (2,544 points). But Vinatieri's status is in doubt this week because of an injured groin.AP Sports Writer Michael Marot contributed to this report