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When I received the alert on my phone that Dan Arnold would be inactive vs the Bucs Authentic Wil Lutz Jersey , I sent the following text message to a friend of mine: “The Saints are going to mess around trying to establish the run against a team that is fully aware it’s coming and are going to find themselves down 10-3 halfway through the second quarter.” While I’m a fan of Dan Arnold’s skill set, it wasn’t the fact that the Saints would be without the tight end that made me pessimistic about the team; it was what the decision to deactivate Arnold signified to me. To me, it showed that Sean Payton was intent on establishing the run and trying to grind out a win given the poor weather conditions.Even as short as a decade ago, this could have been thought of by most of the football world as a sound strategy: in a game with adverse conditions, take the air out of the ball and lean on your run game. Nowadays, being a “run-first” team leads to sluggish starts and forcing your team to come back in games. A bit of background on some of the stats I looked at: most are pretty basic (Yards Per Carry, Yards Per Attempt), but a couple are a bit more advanced (though still pretty simple) such as First Down Rate (% of plays that result in a first down and Success Rate. A “successful” play is one that picks up 50% of the yards to go on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down. When I looked at the play calling, I looked at “early down” play calling, meaning just 1st and 2nd down. I did this because there is more left to the coach’s discretion on 1st/2nd down. 3rd down play calls are generally determined by yards to go. The last bit of background needed is that passing is generally more efficient than rushing: the Saints average 8.4 Yards Per Attempt with a 58% success rate on the season when passing. When rushing, the Saints average 4.1 Yards Per Carry with a 54% success rate.Digging into the data from the Bucs game, the Saints were far too committed to the run, particularly on 1st downs and 2nd and longs. Rush vs PassTypeCountAverageSuccess RateTypeCountAverageSuccess RateNow this is just a simple count of every early down play call from the Bucs game, but it’s still interesting to see that despite the fact that the Saints were averaging more than a yard and a half more per play and a success rate of 55% passing the ball compared to just 36% rushing, they still ran more than passed. The following table shows every early down run from the Bucs game and the overall stats. A couple of notes: I did not keep track of goal-to-go situations since the distances and play calls change dramatically near the goal line. I also counted any penalties that occurred as actual plays (for example, the Saints had 2 holding penalties on runs so those are charted here).Bucs Early Down RunsEarly Down RunsStartingYardsEndingSuccessEarly Down RunsStartingYardsEndingSuccessBucs Runs DistanceDistanceCountYPC1st Down %SuccessDistanceCountYPC1st Down %SuccessThe distances used were short (3 or fewer yards to go), medium (4-6 yards to go), and long (7+ yards to go). Amazingly, despite averaging just 2.7 yards per carry Womens Cameron Jordan Jersey , the Saints ran the ball 21 times on early downs from a distance of 1st/2nd and 7+. They only passed the ball 20 times TOTAL on early downs all game. The passing stats are as follows:Bucs Early PassesEarly Down PassesStartingYardsEndingSuccessEarly Down PassesStartingYardsEndingSuccessBucs Passes by DistanceDistanceCountYPA1st Down %SuccessDistanceCountYPA1st Down %SuccessRemember before how the Saints ran the ball 21 times on 1st/2nd and long despite a 29% success rate? The team passed just 16 times in the same situations, despite the fact that they were successful almost twice as often on pass plays. And while the Saints struggled through the early part of the Bucs game, overall for the game, they averaged the same yards per drop-back as the Patriots have this season. Looking back on the game as a whole, it’s easy to see why the Saints struggled so much prior to Taysom Hill’s blocked punt. Despite the fact that the passing game had a success rate of 54% prior to the blocked punt, the Saints still had 8 early down runs which averaged 0.5 YPC with just one of those runs earning a successful grade. I also decided to look back at a game where the Saints were more successful offensively to see if the play calling changed at all. The following stats and tables are all from the Saints’ 45-35 victory over the Rams. Rams Run vs PassTypeCountAverageSuccess RateTypeCountAverageSuccess RateOverall, there really wasn’t THAT much of a difference in how the Saints ran the ball. They were slightly more efficient, but the key difference was that the Saints were more dedicated to the passing game and were more efficient doing so. The split is even more favorable to the passing game as this includes two runs when the Saints were simply trying to kill the clock. When the Saints were focused on scoring, they passed the ball 26 times on early downs compared to 22 runs, and even that might not be enough. Rams Run vs Pass by DistancePlay TypeCountYPC1st Down %SuccessPlay TypeCountYPC1st Down %SuccessWe can see here that the Saints run/pass split on 1st/2nd and long basically flipped, and that made a huge difference in their offensive success. Rather than the 16/21 Pass/Run split in the Bucs game, the Saints had a 23/20 Pass/Run split against the Rams. But even in this more efficient decision, Sean Payton still had plenty of room to pass more in these key situations. The Saints were still almost twice as successful passing the ball on 1st/2nd and long as they were rushing it, yet the split was still almost 50/50. Think about it another way: in the most explosive offensive game of the season, the Chiefs and Rams ran the ball 20 and 21 times TOTAL during the game. So the Saints ran the ball 21 times in inefficient situations on 1st and 2nd down while the Chiefs and Rams, in a game they knew they’d need to score nearly every possession, ran the ball 20 times each during the entire game. The last thing I decided to do with these games was to look at the 1st/2nd down play calls and results on each series where the Saints were forced to punt or kick a field goal. Basically, I wanted to see what play calls led the drive to stall. They are as follows:Bucs: 1st Down: Incomplete Pass; 2nd Down: 10 yard holding call on run; 2nd down: 3 yard passBucs: 1st Down: 0 yard run; 2nd Down: -7 yard runBucs: 1st Down: -1 yard run; 2nd Down: 8 yard passBucs: 1st Down: 2 yard run; 2nd Down: 7 yard passRams: 1st Down: -4 yard run; 2nd Down: 7 yard passRams: 1st Down: 2 yard run; 2nd Down: 2 yard runRams: 1st Down: 3 yard run; 2nd Down: 2 yard runOf the seven Saints drives that stalled (outside of turnovers), six started off with a run on 1st and 10 (all of which were unsuccessful). The one that started with a pass turned into a 2nd and 20 when the Saints were called for holding when trying to run on 2nd and 10. Four of the seven series featured runs that resulted in negative yardage. Overall, in these 7 sequences featuring 15 total plays (including the penalty), there were 10 runs (all unsuccessful) for -11 yards including the 10 yard holding penalty. This is obviously a small sample size Authentic Ted Ginn Jr Jersey , but this is a trend that’s been proven true in studies over recent years. The Saints were passing the ball with incredible efficiency vs the Rams which helped them build a 35-14 lead. When they decided to try and sit on the lead and run the ball, their next 3 possessions resulted in 2 punts and a field goal. Against the Bucs, the Saints tried to come out and run the ball given the expected weather conditions. Their first 6 rushes were unsuccessful, and the Saints scored 3 points in the first half.Passing the ball more isn’t a simple cure-all for some of the inefficiencies in the Saints offense over parts of the last 2-3 games. Nor is running the ball a surefire detriment to the team’s Super Bowl hopes. But if the Saints are going to win the next 6 games to secure home field advantage and then beat 3 good-elite teams to win the Super Bowl, they can’t afford to give the other team the analytical advantage when it comes to smart play calling on early downs. The Saints very well might be the best overall team in the NFL, and taking the low-hanging fruit that is passing more on 1st and 10 and 2nd and long could help propel them these next 6 games. What some are calling the NFL's Game of the Year already has made huge headlines by being moved out of Mexico City because of poor playing conditions. Chiefs-Rams is back in Los Angeles, in prime time and, if it lives up to its billing, could be a wild, high-scoring affair.Regardless of who wins, both clubs figure to be in the Super Bowl mix. And because of the extracurriculars associated with Monday night's meeting, perhaps it won't be a fair measurement which is the superior team.Who cares?For a mid-November match, fans can't ask for much better than a pair of 9-1 teams with powerhouse offenses and stars galore 鈥?leading MVP contenders Todd Gurley of Los Angeles and Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City for starters 鈥?going at it as the only show in town. No matter which town.It's the first meeting in NFL history this late in a season between two teams averaging 33 points per game."He's made some plays that you sit back and you can't help but just say, 'Wow, what a great play,'" Rams coach Sean McVay says of Mahomes, who leads the NFL in yards passing (3,150). Rams QB Jared Goff is second (3,134).Mahomes set a Chiefs record with an NFL-best 31st TD pass of the season last week. Len Dawson had held that KC record since 1964.Gurley paces the NFL in scoring (108 points), yards rushing (988), carries (198) Womens Ken Crawley Jersey , yards from scrimmage (1,390) and touchdowns (17). He has scored a touchdown in 13 consecutive games, extending his own franchise record."He is a heck of a player. A great player," Chiefs coach Andy Reid says when asked how to slow Gurley. "You have to be disciplined. They're a disciplined offense, so you have to be disciplined from a defensive standpoint. Then practice that way and then you go play."OK, guys, go play. Let America watch what could be a classic.The weekend began Thursday night with Seattle's 27-24 home victory over Green Bay. Russell Wilson threw for 225 yards and his 15-yard touchdown pass to Ed Dickson with 5:08 left was the difference. Seattle (5-5) snapped a two-game losing streak. Green Bay dropped to 4-5-1.Off this week are New England (7-3), the New York Jets (3-7), Miami (5-5), Cleveland (3-6-1), San Francisco (2-8) and Buffalo (3-7).MINNESOTA (5-3-1) at CHICAGO (6-3)We soon will find out if the Bears are for real. They are on top of the NFC North, now face the defending division winners, then in a ridiculously short turnaround from Sunday night, they play the early Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit. They also have the Rams and Packers on the road in December.Two of the NFL's stingiest and most physical defenses should be main factors Sunday.Minnesota has allowed an average of only 252.5 yards over last four games, winning three. It did so missing some starters. Safety Harrison Smith likes seeing the Bears: Smith has four interceptions and six passes defended in 10 career games vs. Chicago.Chicago dropped 10 in a row against the NFC North before beating Detroit last Sunday. It leads the NFL with 16 interceptions, and ranks second with 24 takeaways.HOUSTON (6-3) at WASHINGTON (6-3)Two also-rans of 2017 now leading their divisions.The Texans have won six in a row and come off a bye. Key personnel such as DE J.J. Watt and QB Deshaun Watson were injured last year and are now playing at peak efficiency.If Watson gets time to throw 鈥?Houston has surrendered 30 sacks 鈥?DeAndre Hopkins will be the biggest challenge to cover. He has four games with 10-plus catches, 100-plus yards and a touchdown through the air. That's most in the league since the start of 2017, and Hopkins has five TD catches over the past four games. .Washington has showed some balance on offense, but the defense has been a major factor in its strong year. It has forced a turnover in 13 consecutive games, the NFL's longest active streak.TENNESSEE (5-4) at INDIANAPOLIS (4-5)Suddenly, there's a race in the AFC South Womens Alex Anzalone Jersey , and the Colts could get even more involved with a fourth consecutive victory. But the Titans, coming off their best game by far in an upset of the Patriots, have won six straight within the division.Of course, Andrew Luck was not in the lineup for any of those; Luck is 9-0 in starts against Tennessee."I'm aware of it," Luck says. "But what's happened has happened, and good, bad or ugly, it doesn't really matter."The Titans have the league's No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 16.8 points a game, and have yielded a league-low 16 touchdowns.PHILADELPHIA (4-5) at NEW ORLEANS (8-1)New Orleans looks like the NFL's top team right now, and the Eagles don't resemble their title-winning squad of last season.Injuries are damaging Philly's defense at a really bad time. A banged-up secondary takes on Drew Brees and his assortment of helpers. The Saints have scored at least 40 points in five games this season, the third team in NFL history to score 40 in five of the first nine. Brees is completing 77.1 percent of his passes, has thrown for 21 TDs with one interception, and has a 123.8 passer rating.Michael Thomas is tied for the NFL lead with 78 catches, ranks second with 950 yards, while Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram form a formidable and versatile backfield.PITTSBURGH (6-2-1) at JACKSONVILLE (3-6)The Steelers will be wise to look forward and not back at their last encounter with the Jaguars. Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh twice last season, including a 45-42 playoff shocker at Heinz Field.Thinking revenge would be foolish because the Steelers are on a roll. Well, so are the Jags: Pittsburgh has won five in a row, Jacksonville has dropped that many consecutively.Steelers running back James Conner has not allowed the team to regret the contract impasse that has led to Le'Veon Bell sitting out the season. Conner is the eighth player in team history with at least 10 rushing touchdowns, leads the AFC in rushing, and is expected to play after being placed in concussion protocol following last week's win over Carolina.CINCINNATI (5-4) at BALTIMORE (4-5)Cincinnati brings a historically leaky defense to Baltimore Womens Terron Armstead Jersey , which might be without regular quarterback Joe Flacco (hip). That would mean either first-round pick Lamar Jackson or veteran Robert Griffin III will try to further expose that Bengals unit.The Bengals have won eight of the last 10 in the series, but they fired first-year defensive coordinator Teryl Austin after a 51-14 loss to the Saints, the second-most points allowed in franchise history. They became the first team in the Super Bowl era to give up 500 yards in three straight games and are on pace to give up an NFL-record 7,273 yards.Head coach Marvin Lewis takes over defensive coordinator duties, too.DALLAS (4-5) at ATLANTA (4-5)The Falcons appeared ready to take a role in the playoff race with three successive wins. Then, they put forth a stinker at Cleveland.Meanwhile, the Cowboys seemed headed toward irrelevance before they went into Philadelphia and outplayed the Super Bowl champions.Dallas will want to run with Zeke Elliott, who's second in the NFL in rushing behind Gurley after gaining 151 yards against the Eagles. Atlanta will want to throw: Matt Ryan has seven games with a QB rating over 100 and six games with more than 300 yards passing, while Julio Jones became the fastest player in NFL history with more than 10,000 yards receiving.CAROLINA (6-3) at DETROIT (3-6)Both teams would like to forget last week's poor performances.Carolina leads this infrequent series 6-2 and remains in good position in the wild-card race with a victory. Detroit needs an immediate turnaround to get into contention.If this is close, expect Cam Newton and Co. to win. Since 2013, the Panthers are 26-14 in games decided by seven points or fewer. They have won five straight games decided by three or fewer.Newton has thrown at least two TD passes in eight straight games, the longest streak in franchise history.DENVER (3-6) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (7-2)While the Rams grab the headlines in LA, the Chargers keep grabbing victories. They could get help in the AFC West if their neighbors knock off KC, too.The Chargers are a league-best 13-3 since Week 9 of last season. Their six-game winning streak marks the 11th time since the merger they had a streak of six or more. Philip Rivers has thrown for two or more TDs in nine straight games. Only five quarterbacks in league history have a string of 10 or more games.TAMPA BAY (3-6) at NEW YORK GIANTS (2-7)Saturday's Notre Dame-Syracuse matchup in the New York area figures to be more fun than this, although the Bucs usually pile up the yards in passing offense and the Giants come off a stirring Eli Manning-led comeback win.Tampa has lost three in row and six of seven, while New York broke a five-game slide on Monday night. Bucs wideouts Mike Evans (13 catches for 217 yards and a TD in two games) and DeSean Jackson (five touchdowns in the last six games) have feasted on the Giants' defense.OAKLAND (1-8) at ARIZONA (2-7)The lowest-ranked teams in the AP Pro32 face off with the Cardinals coming off a solid effort at Kansas City. The Raiders? They seem to have fallen into the Black Hole, outscored 54-9 in the last two games.Cardinals star Larry Fitzgerald needs eight receptions to surpass Jerry Rice for the most catches for one team. Custom New England Patriots Jerseys