The Seahawks have not fielded a run defense this bad in over a decade

. Seahawks opponents average a rather staggering 5.3 rush yards per attempt Alex McGough Color Rush Jersey , which is worst in the NFL. Yet it is notable how little this weakness has seemingly affected Seattle’s season. Dallas averaged 8.7 yards an attempt but were stifled by Seattle, spending more than half the game in dire states of win probability. Carolina also averaged over eight yards an attempt, but actually forfeited value running the ball, and did not win. Despite the fantasy stats, the Panthers rush offense was lacking in value and unreliable. At the most critical moments of the game, at the highest leverage moments for their offense, when running metamorphoses from lowly atavistic tendency and becomes critical, Carolina failed rushing or opted to pass. Rather than breaking down the tape, exactly, understanding the interaction of players and assigning credit and blame, etc., let us look at some of the pre-snap formations employed by each team and attempt to see whether Seattle is able to flex into being an effective run defense when necessary.First, here’s a list of Seattle’s week-to-week run defense as measured by EPA—from best to worst.Cardinals: 9.41Panthers: 5.33Cowboys: 3.16Raiders: 1.65Lions: 0.89Bears: 0.41Broncos: 0.38Packers: -0.90Chargers: -4.21Rams: -4.40Rams: -9.18Vince Verhei of Football Outsiders offered a good explanation of how Carolina rushed for 220 yards but actually lost value through their ground game:“[Christian McCaffrey] was 19th with 17 total DYAR. Actually had negative rushing DYAR, only slightly due to opponent adjustments (which took him from 3 to -3). As others have noted, he had three fumbles, which is a TON for a running back. He’s the only running back with three fumbles in a game this year. Only eight running backs have that many fumbles this entire SEASON, and nobody has more than four. Also, McCaffrey was explosive, but erratic. His success rate on 17 carries was just 53 percent (good but nothing special for a single game) and he is dinged for failures to convert on five carries with 5 yards or less to go for a first down.”When you consider that the average team in the NFL has totaled half a point lost by running the ball, Seattle’s cumulative points lost through rush defense, 14.44, which is 27th in the NFL, is not great. In fact as measured by EPA, Seattle’s defense has steadily declined through the season and now ranks tied for 19th with Green Bay. But like last week’s oxymoronic play distribution on offense, Seattle ranking so poorly on defense doesn’t seem logical. The Seahawks rank eight in scoring defense and a respectable 11th by DVOA. We’re looking at half a drive this week. Specifically the stretch in which Carolina’s opening drive cooled from blistering to absolute zero, as in zero points scored. We begin here:1st & 10 at SEA 13(9:14 - 1st) C.McCaffrey left tackle to SEA 8 for 5 yards (S.Stephen).This was the last really neutral down and distance for Carolina, in which a pass or run is broadly speaking equally as likely.Seattle is notably soft along the edges. Frank Clark and Barkevious Mingo are both aligned wide and standing. Nazair Jones and Dion Jordan are both playing 3-4 end. Here’s another look which really highlights how fanned out Seattle’s personnel were.I obviously do not mean “soft” to criticize Seattle. Only, Seattle has responded to so-called 11 personnel with a nickel look that emphasizes coverage and pass rush at the expense of containment and outside leverage. This happens:But Shamar Stephen (98), who can be seen above splitting a double team, shadows the ball carrier and tackles McCaffrey after a five yard gain. This put Carolina within the ten. The Panthers could convert the first by gaining five yards and could score by gaining eight. The cramped quarters and inability to produce an explosive play make this a run-first situation Byron Maxwell Color Rush Jersey , and Carolina ran on the next three downs.2nd & 5 at SEA 8(8:34 - 1st) C.McCaffrey right tackle to SEA 7 for 1 yard (S.Stephen; B.Wagner).Seattle anticipated this and look at how much more, shall we say, sturdy their alignment becomes.“Force” is now centered and tight. The previous play, Seattle had four players within ten yards and between the tackles. This play, Seattle has six. Both ends have their hands on the ground and their splits are much narrower. In the first play Wagner can be seen playing back on his heels. Not that he is timid of course but he’s protecting the goal line, providing a last line of defense while also positioning himself to defend a pass. This play, before the ball is handed off, he’s attacking.Jordan (95) and Clark (55) are containing and attempting backside pursuit respectively. The rush is stuffed and that stuff is pretty costly, losing Carolina 0.63 points.3rd & 4 at SEA 7(8:06 - 1st) (Shotgun) C.Newton up the middle to SEA 5 for 2 yards (J.Coleman; B.Wagner).This is a bit wind-blurred but what matters is still obvious.Carolina is still in 11 personnel. Seattle is pretty spread out. Bradley McDougald is well positioned to cover McCaffrey—especially McCaffrey as a receiver. Wagner is aligned over the soft edge outside Jones (92). This is particularly notable I think because though Seattle is not quite in a run-stopping alignment, its best run defender is not tied up in coverage. He’s reading Cam from the get-go and wouldn’t you know it?That proves decisive. Carolina sheds even more value, losing 1.3 points of field position and down and distance.4th & 2 at SEA 5(7:23 - 1st) (Shotgun) C.Newton right guard to SEA 4 for 1 yard (B.Wagner; A.Calitro). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 07:15.)Now a run is very likely. Norval Turner does not disappoint (the Seahawks.)Tre Flowers (37) has inched forward, and now nine Seahawks defenders are within five yards of the line of scrimmage. They are organized into two distinct waves. Five to stifle blockers and four to stuff the ball carrier (it’s obviously not that neat but you get my gist.) Quinton Jefferson (99), Seattle’s big defensive end, is aligned strong side.Carolina achieves no push whatsoever.Calitro, McDougald, and Flowers are all ready should Cam want to pitch it. Calitro, to his credit, actually is able to wrap around from the back and get in on the tackle. But of greater interest: We see Wagner wholly unblocked, Jefferson standing up his blocker, Mingo with outside leverage, and the stunt performed by Naz (his knee is just to our left of Jarran Reed (90)) achieving a big knot of confused bodies up the middle and freeing Reed to further close off Newton’s potential lanes of attack.It all works. Wagner stands up Newton. Calitro drags him down from behind. Jefferson ensures this is all happening close to the line of scrimmage and with minimal opportunity for Newton to build momentum, and Seattle forces the turnover on downs.Rather quickly Seattle improved their scoring potential by 4.58 points. This performance jibes with another stat which seemingly contradicts Seattle’s overall poor rushing defense. The Seahawks rank fifth in Power success. Which, while I won’t restate the definition here (click the link!), basically is what it sounds like: success at preventing first downs and touchdowns in short-yardage situations.Here’s another thing to consider. Earl Thomas played in Seattle’s first four games. Thomas is not the best run defender, but he is by my estimation the best center fielder to play safety since Ed Reed. Reed is the greatest safety I’ve ever seen and arguably the greatest safety of all time. Thomas’s extreme range allowed Seattle to concentrate force closer to the line of scrimmage. Tedric Thompson has taken over since Week 5 and Seattle has understandably been more inclined to protect Thompson.Rush defense with Thomas starting: 3.34 extra points added a game. Rank: 1st, just ahead of the Bears who average 3.32 EPA a game.Rush defense without Thomas: 1.55 extra points lost a game. Rank: 27th, exactly where Seattle currently ranks.That’s not perfect, of course. Notably, the Rams appear in the latter sample. Twice. But it’s a huge swing Sebastian Janikowski Color Rush Jersey , and I think informative.The Seahawks face a very weak 49ers offense this weekend. Nick Mullens has performed a shade better than CJ Beathard, but in reality a blunderbuss would nail `em both with one blast. While San Francisco’s overall rushing offense is among the worst in the league, Matt Breida has performed very well, averaging 7.2% DVOA a rush, just below former NFL player and newest exemplar of why a conscientious fan of the NFL must follow their passion with a queasy ambivalence: Kareem Hunt, and tenth overall. Despite battling an injury, Breida is elite fast, and whatever Kyle Shanahan may say, it would be remarkable if Breida isn’t the focus of the 49ers offense this Sunday.Maybe this is a trap game. Maybe a good running back with home run ability should be thought especially dangerous against a team averaging 5.3 yards allowed per rush. But I think Seattle can flex into being a better run defense. I think through adjusting personnel, alignment and spacing, the Seahawks can be downright ferocious defending the run. This season, maybe, Seattle cannot effectively defend pass and run. Maybe. Or maybe Thompson’s earning trust. The Seahawks are a young and incomplete team figuring stuff out. That facilitates criticism which could be read as pessimism. But after two seasons of outlandish hopes becoming infinite resignation, I am happy to cheer on a team growing into its future rather than bitterly clinging to its past. George Fant was fun last season. There’s no doubt. Yet the right tackle’s move to tight end was an act of necessity. It was a forced switch after Will Dissly tore his patellar tendon in the first quarter of the Week 4 matchup with the Arizona Cardinals.Dissly’s injury created a gaping chasm at the tight end spot, because the Seattle Seahawks’ offense requires a sound blocker at the position. Nick Vannett wasn’t that, hence Fant’s transformation. Dissly’s blocking ability is at the level of an offensive linemen. However, his route running and catching ability far exceeds that of an o-lineman. Despite a 4.87 forty-yard dash he experienced little difficulty getting open, emerging as an early weapon for Russell Wilson. Dissly put up 156 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in 3 and a bit games. While Fant had little trouble blocking at Dissly’s level, he couldn’t come close to replicating the rookie’s receiving skill. There was the hilarious catch in the flat and face plant into the turf against the Green Bay Packers. And that was it. A receiver he is not, and nor should he be.The rest of the tight end group featured Ed Dickson and Nick Vannett. It was distinctly light, with both players whiffing on crucial blocks numerous times. That crack toss Seattle likes to run? Yeah, it needs a reliable crack-back guy. Dissly’s injury is a tricky one to recover from. His work ethic is encouraging:But, though his game was never predicated on explosion or long speed, Dissly faces a difficult route to being fully healthy for the start of 2019. The solution at tight end, or at least some more critical depth at the position, could be found in the draft.Trevon WescoThe Seahawks may want to double down on a big blocking tight end who can also catch. If Dissly is 100% next season, then it will be a bonus of having two versatile people movers. If Dissly is banged up, then it will be more welcome. Introducing West Virginia tight end Trevon Wesco. The big man is listed at 6’4, 268 lbs. (Dissly measured in at 6’4, 262 lbs at the NFL combine)Wesco was a JUCO recruit Dontae Johnson Color Rush Jersey , having spent two years at Lackawanna College. The Mountaineers were Wesco’s home-state team and the prospect prepped at Musselman High—Inwood, W.V. In high school, Wesco was also an All-State basketball player—a fact you can expect to hear over, and over, and over again if he so much as sniffs the football in the NFL. Wesco was good at getting the ball in college, at least for a WVU tight end. Against TCU, he led West Virginia in receiving yards. That was the first time since 2002 that a tight end had accomplished the feat in gold and blue, plus Wesco’s 86 yards dwarfed Josh Bailey’s 35 yards of 12 years ago.It’s Wesco’s domination of the Horned Frogs that we’re going to focus on. The game encapsulated his abilities and the role he can play in the pros. Despite a career-high game total, afterwards Wesco chose to talk about his selfless attitude: BlockingNothing demonstrates Wesco’s team-first approach more than his blocking, the element to his game that will have alerted Seattle’s Front Office. Be it pancaking the backside EDGE on an inside zone split lead from H-back or sticking to a mauling in-line down block, he rocked defenders while doing it all. The tight end could do with sinking more to gain greater power, but he’s still a dangerous and willing defender dominator that suits the Seahawks’ identity perfectly. He can also be trusted to stay in and pass protect; this is key for Brian Schottenheimer’s max-protect, two-route combination, play-action deep shots. West Virginia struggled to run the rock from 10 personnel but switching to 11 personnel (getting Wesco involved) saw the rushing attack improve. The Mountaineers coaches showed great schematic faith in the tight end, essentially playing him like a 6th offensive linemen at times. Take this play from WVU’s victory over Texas. From H-back, Wesco effectively became the backside tackle on the inside zone run. This allowed the rest of the line to shift over to the left and climb more aggressively, creating an unbalanced effect for the defensive front to deal with. Soft handsAfter drafting Dissly, John Schneider remarked that he couldn’t hear the ball hit his hands. Wesco appears to have similarly supple and reliable paws. This was just the second score of his career, yet he executed like a complete natural. The 23-year-old aligned as a wingback. The two routes ahead of Wesco ran inwards, sucking the defensive backs inside. Gary Patterson is one of the great pioneers of defensive matching coverage. But on this play the rotated down safety messed up and left Patterson looking like a pattern matching rookie. With the cornerback squeezing the inwards-bending route of #1, no defender ran back with the wheel of Wesco. The route combination caused the blown coverage. With two defenders in the flat, TCU was left with nobody on the deep sideline for the slightly delayed vertical nature of the wheel. Wesco was butt-naked exposed, and he flashed surprising long speed in the open-field.He hauled in his career-long 32-yard reception in testing circumstances, which Wesco illustrated to the media after the victory: Supple paws indeed. Multipurpose wiggle and shiftWesco really can shift. He’s a bit like a runaway train, or a truck with severe brake failure. The difference is the surprising wiggle that he possesses; he’s sneaky elusive. He also serves multiple purposes.In the Big 12, defensive coordinators are desperate to stop the spread and run a ton of three-safety looks. Wesco’s multiple performance led to a question over whether he was a partial antidote to what defensive schemers are trying to do. Then-offensive coordinator and current-Texas State head coach Jake Spavital provided an illuminating response:Seattle could do this too.Wesco’s true all-round nature demands defensive respect. His effective blocking means defenses must play honest. It’s not a ‘tell’ to see Wesco lined up at tight end. Nothing demonstrated his “pop pass” potential better than his seam catch on this Run-Pass Option play.The jet motion fake and inside zone action occupied the linebackers. In addition, Spavital spotted that TCU’s reaction to jet was to rotate the safety away from the motion to the deep middle of the field and have the opposite safety come down on the run.This meant that Wesco was uncovered right down the seam. Grier read this at the mesh point and pulled the ball from the running back. Wesco caught the ball, quickly transitioned into a runner and made the first tackler miss for a 23-yard gain. YAC and RACWesco will bully smaller defensive backs. Arm tackles will be punished. Poor angles will be wrecked. Sound form tackles will be obliterated. This all stems from a philosophy learned from the tight end/fullback coach at West Virginia: On this combo/RPO play, called Zone Right/63 left, Wesco ran into the flat D.J. Fluker Color Rush Jersey , opposite the flow of the zone run. Grier was tasked with reading the flat defender, who left Wesco open while fitting the run. The trips alignment gave Wesco two blockers, so he was unchallenged for roughly four yards.But then Wesco’s ability to punish pursuing defenders became apparent. The first angle was poor; Wesco’s wiggle cut past it. The second tackling attempt was all arm; Wesco bounced through it. The third was a lot of helmet; Wesco’s vicious shoulder caused PAINT CHIPS TO FLY. He wanted that contact. His YAC and RAC turned what could have been a second down into a first and significantly more. Just look at this!The play looks a lot like Vannett’s goalline touchdown versus the Kansas City Chiefs:Strong hands and play strengthWesco’s play strength is a clear positive, and it extends to strong hands too. This was showcased on a fourth-quarter conversion Wesco had no business in making.Grier wanted Wesco’s dig route the entire play, staring his target down badly. This gave TCU a chance to key on the pass. Despite having a defender draped over him, Wesco made the catch with strong hands positioned away from his frame. Wesco then did well to secure the football, and then hauled that defender all the way to the first down marker. It took three TCU players to eventually bring the leg-churning power down. He somehow picked up a new set of downs on 2nd and 7.Draft projectionA point that will be oft-repeated in Draft on tape is that the Seahawks lack resources. They currently only have: Round 1 Pick 21; Round 3 Pick 84; Round 4 Pick 116; and Round 5 Pick 148. Multiple trade backs will happen, in addition to the now customary first-round trade down from John Schneider.The promising news is that the league will sleep on blocking tight ends who run slow and have low production. Just look at Dissly being taken in the 4th round. Wesco also had little production (373 career receiving yards) which was partially due to the heavy 10 personnel nature of West Virginia’s Air Raid. We will have to wait to see how he tests, but I imagine his forty will be similar to Dissly’s. That makes him a Day 3 pick. It’s Wesco’s tape, though, that shows many desirable traits. Schneider attended the Oklahoma v West Virginia game, possibly to get a closer look at Kyler Murray. But you must think that Wesco was on his watchlist too.Tricky match-up and the Senior BowlI long campaigned for Wesco’s spot at the 2019 Senior Bowl, and Jim Nagy’s response to me is another highlighter of the versatility Wesco brings to an offense. In football, there’s lots of talk over chess pieces. But that’s more reserved for flashier players like hybrid safety/outside linebacker-types. Wesco, though, is a player who can be moved all over the field. He can play in-line, H-back, fullback and as a big slot. Combined with Dissly, this would pose troubling questions for defenses. For instance, lining them up both in the backfield and then shifting them into a stack to crackback for a toss.Wesco was tricky for college defenses, as Spavital explained: Since my interaction with Nagy, Wesco did receive a Senior Bowl invite (listed as a running back). I now have the chance to watch the absolute unit participate in valuable drills. As a member of the South Team, Wesco will be coached by Kyle Shanahan. This is ideal for Wesco given how Shanahan has managed to utilize George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk at San Francisco.I’m most interested to see how Wesco does in run skellies against the best senior linebackers and defensive linemen in the country. His ability to separate will also be under my scrutiny. I expect his soft hands and sneaky movement skills will surprise many evaluators. I’ll report back with a Draft on tape, live from Mobile, next week.